Thursday, January 28, 2010

State of the Union--Exports

President Obama presented his State of the Union address last night.  There are a lot of things to quibble (fight) over, and I may get to more.  But, I did want to point out a particularly puzzling section:
Third, we need to export more of our goods. (APPLAUSE)
Because the more products we make and sell to other countries, the more jobs we support right here in America. So... (APPLAUSE)
So tonight, we set a new goal: We will double our exports over the next five years, an increase that will support 2 million jobs in America. (APPLAUSE)
To help meet this goal, we're launching a National Export Initiative that will help farmers and small businesses increase their exports and reform export controls consistent with national security. We have to seek new markets aggressively, just as our competitors are. If America sits on the sidelines while other nations sign trade deals, we will lose the chance to create jobs on our shores. (APPLAUSE)
But realizing those benefits also means enforcing those agreements so our trading partners play by the rules.
How, pray tell, does one double exports in two years.  I can think of only two ways to achieve such a goal.  First, once can massively depreciate your currency, thereby making your goods cheaper overseas.  Well, we have managed to depreciate our currency with cheap (low interest rates) and printed money as a result of our huge budget deficit.  But, those exchange rates are largely determined by markets.  Second, one could institute policy that restricts domestic consumption of goods to create a larger, exportable surplus (you know, like they do in banana republics).  Hopefully, this is not the objective.  So, one is forced to wonder whether this will simply be another broken promise or something more nefarious.

The National Export Initiative is an interesting concept.  How will it be constructed?  What is it's purpose.  We already have the export programs through the Foreign Agricultural Service.  So how would these work?  And, of course, he brings up the Doha round of the World Trade Organization, where the U.S. proposal is to eliminate all export subsidies.  Would this new initiative run counter to that proposal and his seeming commitment to finish the Doha round?

In short, this was a very weak performance by the President as it relates to his understanding of trade.

Update:  A news story by Reuters puts a more positive spin on this than I do.  I just do not think his goals are reachable and are, therefore, nothing more than an attempt to sound like he is focused on liberalizing trade.

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